Caulfield Review 16/3
Sunday, 17 March 2024 by Gavin Haynes
The race of the day was the All Star Mile and with Mr Brightside looking a smidge light I stated that Pride Of Jenni was the 1 x 3 value lay at $4 and boy was she outstanding again. She finished last campaign with back to back G1 wins at a mile rating 116 and 118, she resumed with SR115 at 1400m and was outstanding here rating an SR 121. Nothing like a front runner that can run time and she is an absolute gun. Mr Brightside lost no admirers with 113/11 2 lengths back in 2nd. The 3rd placed Cascadian was also very good rating 109/111 and he can find best at 2000m next time out. The best All Star Mile we have seen to date
HTF - Apart from the obvious Cascadian as he steps in trip next time out.
Race 1 was was the Listed Victoria Gold Cup over 2000m and we only had 7 runners so NTD and we were chasing $2.30 to have a win bet on Carini but he was never near that starting at $1.75 so it ended up a pad up and nothing like staying out of a race when a roughy gets up. The winner was import Gear Up having only 7th run in Oz. he was coming on off a TOF of +18. I have had a couple of emails from subscribers telling me that they have found many value winners of horses coming off TOF's of +8 or better and my research agrees. Once upon a time I would of had a form penalty for a horse beaten 3.5 lengths or more at previous start but now if they come in at +8 or more I assume that they are at the peak of their powers. 95/101 for the winner at 2nd run back suggests he has finally settled in Oz and can go right on with it. Runner Mankayan was coming in off +18 and +19 with 95/100 seeing him run to best. The Fav Carini was coming in off SR's of 97 and 102 so 89/96 was well down but he did have 6 lengths on 4th.
The next but of Black type was R5 the Listed Anniversary Vase and again we had a disappointing field of 7 and again NTD. There was no meat on the bone and my advice was to stay out. We did dodge the 3rd placed Fav Nugget who was having 2nd run back off a neg split run in a 4.6 length defeat first up. His 92/101 was a nice step up and he looks ready to peak next time out. We found the winner First Immortal as value, this guy is a progressive staying type to kick off with a win suggests he is in for another good campaign, 93/100 was good. The surprise was the run of the race in runner up, lightly raced 7yo The Summit who was best home with 92/105. This guy had never won in 4 first up runs so again he shapes to go right on with it. A 7yo with only 17 starts and they never persevere with duds. 4th placed Shaiyhar was another import resuming and 90/103 was his best in Oz. This should be a good form reference going forward.
HTF - Nugget as he peaks 3rd up next time out
R6 was the Listed Redoute's Choice for the 2yo's and we had Bold Bastille at $1.80 he was smashed into 2's on and won as he liked by 2 lengths franking his 97/94 at 1000m at his previous start with 94/93 at 1100m. worth noting that the horse he beat last start Drifting went to Sydney and was a tasty Gold Miner winner.for us.
The last was the Listed Bel Esprit. Top pick and 1 x 3 play Rey Magnerio was home super for 3rd losing no admirers rating 101/104 franking the Oakleigh Plate formline. The winner Brudenell was also through the same race and he put my doubts about a strong 1200m to rest with a strong win 105/105 a career peak. The runner up was 3yo Maharba who at $8.50 was a MPB running a big career peak as he dropped 3.5kg, 102/100 surpassed his previous best SR of 91 and looks a juvenile still very much on the up, The 4th placed Bank Maur franked his Xr 107 last time out with 99/101 and is now ready for a step up in trip
HTF - 3yo Maharba after this against the older horses can be placed to advantage
There is still some heat left in the Melbourne Autumn as we head to Moonee Valley next Saturday for the G1 William Reid, The G2 Alistair Clarke for the 3yo's and the G2 Sunline for the Mares.
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