The Day a $1.30-New Zealand Derby Favourite Was Beaten

Friday, 1 March 2024 by Jason Tan

Orchestral winning the Gr.2 Eagle Technology Avondale Guineas (2100m). Photo: Trish Dunell

During the last decade of New Zealand horse racing, few moments have been as jarring to so many as the day when La Crique, a filly heralded as the next superstar, was beaten in the 2022 New Zealand Derby. As she passed the post in second position behind Asterix, rider Vinny Colgan, bowed his head in disbelief, and no doubt muttered a few phrases that would need to come with a content warning if published. Sent out at $1.30, her defeat was against the odds, but were the odds themselves right?

Did La Crique Deserve the Odds?

On paper, La Crique's credentials were impeccable. Her performances leading up to the Derby were nothing short of dominant. With HorseTorque NZ ratings of 102 from each of her victories in the Desert Gold and then Avondale Guineas, along with winning margins of 4.5 and 3.8-lengths, the filly's form was undeniable. She was not just winning; she was demolishing fields with an ease that belied the effort involved.

Predictability of the Outcome

However, horse racing is a sport laden with unpredictability. Asterix, who entered the Derby with a relatively modest HorseTorque rating of 85 from a maiden win, was overlooked by many. The question arises: Could the outcome have been predicted? La Crique's barrier draw of 1 was initially seen as an advantage, but it became her Achilles' heel. Overracing as a result of trying to hold a position early and being out of her comfort zone during the crucial first-400 metres of the race cost her dearly.

The Parallels with Orchestral in 2024

Fast forward to this year, and Orchestral has been pegged as the next big thing, entering the Derby as a 1.4 favourite. Her HorseTorque ratings of 100 and 105 from winning the Karaka Million 3yo and the Avondale Guineas, position her as the filly to beat. Yet, the lessons of the past loom large. Her closest competitors, Interlinked and Just As Sharp, may not match her on paper, with ratings of 89, but as history has shown, the Derby is a race that respects no reputation.

A Lesson in Racing Tactics

The Derby, as the saying goes, cannot be won in the first 400 metres, but it can certainly be lost there. Craig Grylls, aboard Orchestral, must navigate the early stages with a blend of confidence and calm. The aim should be to keep Orchestral happy and relaxed, conserving her energy for when it counts the most. The brilliance of a thoroughbred lies not just in their speed, but in their ability to unleash it at the decisive moment.

So what side of history will Orchestral fall on? With fewer ‘traps’ than what La Crique faced and a barrier (9) that'll allow Grylls to choose, rather than be dictated to, I’d be surprised if you saw much more than 1.4 in the lead-up to the race, and it might be a case of betting on how far she wins by.

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Good luck

Jason Tan